USDA's first farmer-surveyed soybean yield estimate for 2026 came in slightly below market expectations, but a larger increase in harvested acreage pushed projected production to a record 4.519 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, below the 53.0 bushel trendline forecast and the average pre-report trade estimate of 52.9 bushels. The estimate would represent the second-largest U.S. soybean yield on record if realized.

The August yield estimate remains subject to change as much of the soybean crop was still in peak pod fill when USDA conducted its survey from late July through early August. October and November yield estimates historically have been closer to final January yields.

Acreage provided a more certain indicator of the size of the 2026 crop. USDA estimated 85.5 million soybean acres will be harvested, 1.4 million acres, or 1.7%, above the 84.1 million acres projected in June and higher than the average trade estimate of 84.6 million acres.

USDA's acreage estimate incorporated a farmer resurvey along with FSA certified acres, RMA insured acres, satellite imagery and field observations.

Soybean acreage declined in South Dakota, Iowa and Illinois, which each reported 200,000 fewer acres. Ohio acreage fell by 150,000 acres. Those reductions were offset by increases in Missouri, Mississippi, Minnesota, Arkansas, Nebraska and Louisiana.

Missouri added 350,000 soybean acres, followed by Mississippi with 330,000, Minnesota with 300,000, Arkansas and Nebraska with 250,000 each and Louisiana with 170,000. The increased acreage in states supplying the U.S. Gulf could support export demand as China continues purchasing U.S. soybeans for 2026/27 shipment.

USDA's revised production estimate is 44 million bushels, or 1%, above its previous projection and toward the upper end of trade expectations.

Demand forecasts also supported soybean prices following the report. September 2026 soybean futures gained 13.75 cents to close at $11.6525 per bushel, while November futures rose 14.5 cents to $11.835 per bushel.

USDA increased projected 2025/26 soybean crush by 5 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels and raised 2026/27 crush by 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion bushels. Strong crush margins, high soybean oil prices and expectations for continued demand supported the increases.

September soybean oil futures gained 0.59 cent to close at 69.16 cents per pound. USDA raised its forecast for soybean oil used in biofuels during 2025/26 by 150 million pounds to 14.7 billion pounds. For 2026/27, soybean oil production is expected to approach 33 billion pounds, with the additional production allocated to food, feed and other industrial uses rather than biomass-based diesel.

Soymeal demand also strengthened the outlook. USDA expects domestic livestock and export consumption to exceed rising crush volumes in both 2025/26 and 2026/27, increasing reliance on imports.

USDA raised its 2025/26 season-average soybean meal price forecast by $5 per ton to $320. The 2026/27 forecast remained at $310 per ton. September soybean meal futures gained $3.50 per ton to close at $308.50.

FSA reported 525,376 failed soybean acres for 2026, down more than 744,000 acres from the previous year. The relatively low prevent plant total indicates that favorable spring conditions allowed farmers to plant a large share of intended soybean acreage.

With harvested acreage reaching the sixth-highest level on record and yield still uncertain, the October and November Crop Production reports will be key to determining the final size of the 2026 soybean crop and the broader 2026/27 supply outlook.

Source: American Soybean Association, "Soy Demand Rises to Meet Large Crop"