A new analysis from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the Illinois Soybean Association estimates that Illinois corn and soybean farmers could lose as much as $609 million in annual revenue if the state banned the use of glyphosate.

The study projects revenue losses ranging from $300 million to $609 million per year, or 1.8% to 3.6%, based on a scenario in which growers replace glyphosate with more expensive and slightly less effective herbicides while also experiencing modest yield reductions.

Researchers said those losses would come at a time when many producers are already operating under tight financial conditions. The analysis was prompted by previous legislative proposals in Illinois to ban glyphosate, as well as other pesticide restrictions introduced earlier this year. The authors said their analytical approach could also be applied to evaluate the economic effects of restrictions on other crop protection products.

To estimate the potential impact, researchers calculated current glyphosate use and expenditures across Illinois, then combined published estimates of corn and soybean yield losses associated with reduced glyphosate use. They also evaluated alternative herbicides, accounting for their higher costs, lower effectiveness and the likelihood that demand would increase prices if glyphosate were no longer available.

The study concludes that replacing glyphosate would reduce farm revenue while increasing production costs.

Researchers also emphasized that the analysis focuses only on direct economic impacts to farmers and does not include broader effects on the agricultural supply chain, tax revenues, public health or the environment.

The study notes that glyphosate plays an important role in conservation tillage systems by controlling existing vegetation before planting. Without the herbicide, farmers could rely more heavily on conventional tillage, resulting in additional fuel use, higher operating costs and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Those potential costs were not included in the revenue estimates.

According to the researchers, the projected financial losses likely represent only part of the overall impact that a glyphosate ban could have on Illinois agriculture. They said a more comprehensive assessment would need to consider economic, environmental and public health factors before evaluating the full costs and benefits of such a policy.

Source: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, "What would it cost farmers if Illinois banned glyphosate?"