The U.S. Department of Agriculture made only modest revisions to its soybean balance sheets in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, but the changes supported soybean prices by increasing export expectations while leaving ending stocks largely unchanged.
Following the report's release on July 10, soybean futures strengthened. August soybean futures settled 12.75 cents higher at $11.905 per bushel, while August soybean oil futures gained 0.5 cent to 70.42 cents per pound. August soymeal futures also finished higher despite giving back some of their early gains, closing $2.30 higher at $316.50 per short ton.
For the 2025-26 marketing year, USDA raised U.S. soybean exports by 10 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels, citing strong shipment activity. The increase reduced projected ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio to 7.7%. USDA left the season-average farm price unchanged at $10.40 per bushel.
For the 2026-27 marketing year, USDA maintained its soybean yield forecast at 53 bushels per acre. Combined with higher planted acreage reported June 30, production is projected at a record 4.475 billion bushels if realized.
The larger crop was offset by stronger demand. USDA increased projected soybean exports by 30 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels following recent export sales activity. Beginning stocks were also reduced by 10 million bushels, leaving projected ending stocks unchanged from June at 310 million bushels. The season-average soybean price remained at $11.40 per bushel.
USDA made only minor adjustments to the soybean oil balance sheet. For 2025-26, imports increased by 15 million pounds, food, feed and industrial use rose by 65 million pounds, and exports declined by 50 million pounds. Those changes left ending stocks unchanged at 1.837 billion pounds, and the season-average price remained at 64 cents per pound.
The 2026-27 soybean oil balance sheet was unchanged, with the season-average price holding at 70 cents per pound.
The soymeal outlook included several adjustments without changing ending stocks. For 2025-26, USDA reduced production by 15,000 short tons while increasing imports by the same amount. The agency also shifted 300,000 short tons from domestic livestock and residual use to exports, raising projected exports to 20.3 million short tons. Ending stocks remained at 450,000 short tons, and the season-average price stayed at $315 per short ton.
USDA made similar revisions for 2026-27 by lowering production, increasing imports and shifting 300,000 short tons from domestic use to exports. Export projections increased to 22 million short tons while ending stocks remained at 450,000 short tons. The season-average price was unchanged at $310 per short ton.
Globally, USDA increased 2026-27 soybean export forecasts for both the United States and Brazil. Brazil's exports were raised by 500,000 metric tons to 118 million metric tons, while China's soybean import forecast increased by 1 million metric tons to 115 million metric tons for the new marketing year. China's 2025-26 import forecast also increased by 1 million metric tons.
The stronger demand outlook reduced projected global 2026-27 soybean ending stocks to 124.17 million metric tons, near the low end of pre-report trade expectations.
Source: American Soybean Association, "Export Demand Keeps Soybean Prices Firm Despite Bigger Crop"