As agricultural productivity continues to climb, a new report from S&P Global Energy argues that the industry's challenge may no longer be producing enough food and fuel but creating sufficient demand to absorb growing supplies.

In Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst, released in June 2026, S&P Global Energy examines long-term demographic, consumption and production trends that are reshaping the outlook for agriculture and biofuels.

A Structural Shift

According to the report, global population growth is slowing, per-capita food consumption is maturing in many regions and meat consumption growth has decelerated significantly compared to previous decades. At the same time, advances in genetics, crop protection, digital agriculture and artificial intelligence continue to drive higher yields.

The result, the report suggests, is a widening gap between agricultural productivity and traditional sources of demand.

S&P Global notes that global corn yields have increased approximately 1.5% annually over the past several decades, helping push global grain, oilseed and fiber stocks to nearly 1 billion metric tons in 2025. Meanwhile, growth in food consumption and biofuel demand is expected to slow under current market conditions.

The Role of Biofuels

The report positions biofuels as a potential catalyst for future agricultural growth, arguing that expanded biofuel demand could help support farm profitability, encourage investment in new technologies and maintain productive crop acreage.

Among the report's findings is a projection that U.S. ethanol demand could decline substantially by 2050 if blend rates remain near current levels. Conversely, the study concludes that higher biofuel adoption could create new demand for agricultural commodities while also generating feed co-products that return value to livestock and food production systems.

The 44-page report explores these trends in greater detail, including technology adoption, yield potential, biofuel market development and long-term implications for agricultural resilience.

Read the full report: https://fuelingagriculture.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/The-Report-1.pdf