Global food commodity prices were largely unchanged in May as higher cereal and sugar prices were offset by lower vegetable oil prices, according to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.8 points in May, down 0.2% from a revised April reading but 2.9% higher than a year earlier. The index tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of globally traded food commodities.

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 2.6% from April and was nearly 5% above its level a year ago, reflecting higher prices across major grain categories amid rising fuel and fertilizer costs and weather-related production concerns.

World wheat prices increased 3.4% during the month and were 7.8% higher than a year earlier. FAO attributed the gains to smaller expected harvests among major exporting countries, including the United States, where winter wheat crop conditions remain among the weakest seen in decades. U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat prices in May were 28% higher than a year earlier.

Maize prices climbed 1.9% from April and 3.9% from a year earlier, supported by stronger import demand, tighter supplies in Brazil and the United States, and higher energy prices that boosted ethanol-related demand. The FAO All-Rice Price Index increased 2.7% as weather concerns and rising crude oil prices supported export quotations in key Asian producing countries.

In contrast, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index declined 4.6%, marking its first monthly decrease of 2026. Palm oil prices fell on expectations of weaker import demand and uncertainty in energy markets. Soyoil prices showed mixed trends as increased exportable supplies in South America weighed on prices while strong biofuel demand supported values in North America. Rapeseed and sunflower oil prices increased because of tight supplies.

Alongside its food price report, FAO projected a decline in global cereal production and trade during the 2026-27 marketing year.

World cereal production is forecast to fall 2% from the previous season to 2.982 billion metric tons, largely because of lower wheat output. The projected decline follows a record 3.043 billion metric tons produced in 2025-26, which represented a 6.1% increase from the prior year and contributed to a 9.5% rise in global cereal stocks.

Global cereal utilization is expected to increase 0.6% in 2026-27, slowing from the 2.7% growth recorded the previous season. World cereal stocks are forecast to decline slightly, down 0.3%, primarily because of lower rice inventories. The global cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected at 31.7%, near the previous season's level.

Global cereal trade is expected to decrease 0.3% to 507.2 million metric tons in 2026-27 after expanding 4.8% in 2025-26. Lower wheat and barley trade volumes are expected to outweigh increases in maize and rice shipments.

FAO also noted that its Agricultural Market Information System reported growing concerns over global freight markets due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and examined how countries are responding to rising energy and fertilizer costs.

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase"