Soybean futures rallied following the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report as stronger crush forecasts and rising soy oil demand improved market sentiment for both the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years.

According to analysis published by the American Soybean Association, new crop November 2026 soybean futures climbed above the $12-per-bushel benchmark following release of the report, reaching a three-year high before closing Tuesday at $12.0375 per bushel, up 9 cents on the session. Old crop July 2026 soybean futures also strengthened, climbing to a two-month high of $12.2675 per bushel before ending the day 12.25 cents higher. 

ASA Economist Jacquie Holland described the USDA report as bullish for soybean prices because of increasing domestic and global usage forecasts, particularly for soybean oil and soymeal demand. 

USDA projected 2026/27 average soybean farm prices at $11.40 per bushel, while also increasing its 2025/26 average price estimate by 10 cents to $10.40 per bushel. However, ASA noted the higher prices still may not fully offset rising production costs facing soybean growers. 

The report showed continued expansion in domestic crush demand. USDA increased its 2025/26 U.S. soybean crush forecast by 20 million bushels to 2.63 billion bushels despite lowering export projections by 10 million bushels to 1.53 billion bushels. ASA said strong crush margins and increasing consumption of soybean products helped drive the revised estimates.

Soybean oil demand tied to biomass-based diesel production also continued strengthening. USDA increased projected 2025/26 soybean oil consumption for biomass-based diesel by 200 million pounds to 14.2 billion pounds while raising soybean oil prices to 63 cents per pound. 

For the 2026/27 marketing year, USDA forecast soybean crush volumes at a record 2.75 billion bushels, up 5% from the prior year. Soybean oil production is projected at 32.59 billion pounds, while soymeal production is forecast at 65.025 million short tons, both record levels. 

Soymeal demand also remains strong. USDA forecast 2026/27 soymeal exports at 21.7 million short tons while domestic disappearance is expected to increase to 44.125 million short tons because of continued livestock feed demand. 

USDA estimated 2026 soybean production at 4.435 billion bushels assuming planted acreage of 84.7 million acres and a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre. If realized, the crop would become the second-largest soybean harvest on record in the United States. 

Globally, USDA projected soybean production growth in Brazil, Argentina and the United States during 2026/27. Brazil’s soybean crop is forecast at 186 million metric tons, while Argentina’s production is projected at 50 million metric tons. 

Source: American Soybean Association, "New Crop Soybeans Top $12 as USDA Raises Demand Outlook"