Strong Corn Exports Reshape Global Feed Grain Trade Outlook

U.S. corn exports and shifting global coarse grain supply patterns are influencing feed markets heading into the 2025-26 marketing year, according to the latest USDA Economic Research Service Feed Outlook.

USDA increased the 2025-26 U.S. corn export forecast by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels based on shipment pace and strong foreign demand through late January 2026. During the first quarter of the marketing year, the United States exported about 821.4 million bushels of corn, compared with about 517.2 million bushels during the same period the previous year.

Export shipments increased to traditional buyers including Japan, South Korea and the European Union, while sales to China remained limited.

Even with stronger export demand, U.S. ending stocks remain historically large. USDA lowered 2025-26 ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 2.127 billion bushels, which would still be the highest level since the 2018-19 marketing year. The projected stocks to use ratio is near 13 percent compared with a recent five year average just under 10 percent. The season average farm price is forecast at $4.10 per bushel.

Livestock Numbers Continue to Influence Feed Demand

Livestock inventories continue to shape feed demand expectations. The U.S. cattle herd declined for the seventh consecutive year, totaling 86.2 million head on Jan. 1, 2026, slightly below the previous year.

The 2025 calf crop is estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from the prior year. Grain consuming animal units are forecast essentially unchanged at about 100.14 for 2025-26, supporting expectations for relatively stable feed demand.

Sorghum Use Increases on Ethanol Demand

Sorghum food, seed and industrial use is projected to increase 5 million bushels to 110 million bushels, driven largely by ethanol demand.

Federal energy data shows elevated sorghum ethanol use beginning in late 2024 and continuing through 2025. Ethanol plants capable of processing sorghum represent about 1.34 billion gallons of annual capacity compared with total U.S. ethanol capacity of roughly 18.5 billion gallons.

Sorghum still accounts for less than 8 percent of total ethanol feedstock use, with utilization influenced by relative pricing compared with corn.

Global Coarse Grain Trade Expands

Global coarse grain exports for 2025-26 are forecast to increase 3.06 million metric tons to 244.76 million metric tons, driven largely by stronger corn exports from Brazil and the United States.

Import demand is expected to increase in countries including Iran, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. Barley trade is also expected to strengthen, with Argentina projected to export a record crop and Australia and Russia expected to increase shipments based on demand and port loading pace.

Weather Remains Key Factor for South American Production

Weather remains a key production factor, particularly in South America. In Brazil, safrinha corn accounts for roughly 70 percent to 80 percent of total production.

Planting progress is behind the five year average due to wet conditions, which could influence later production estimates if delays continue.

Table 1. U.S. Corn Balance Sheet Highlights, 2025-26 Forecast

Source: https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/113812/FDS-26B.pdf?v=13016