This regional forecast addresses the critical aspects of Iowa’s 2024 crop outlook. It provides insight into the management strategies and economic considerations shaping the agricultural community in the coming months.
Corn Production Overview: Iowa’s 2024 corn crop is expected to be above average in yield and quality, although localized variability due to growing conditions may affect outcomes. The longer growing season has contributed to better kernel fill, with projections suggesting at least normal, if not higher, test weights. The protein content is anticipated to range between 7.0% and 7.5%, highlighting the crop’s strong feed value. Early estimates place average harvest moisture levels at 17-18%, which will influence both storage and drying strategies. Recent conditions have accentuated field dry-down substantially
One of the key challenges for this year's corn crop will be managing variability in moisture, created by early-season rains that created replanted areas. While field mold levels are low due to cooler nighttime temperatures and low dewpoints, varying moisture content across harvested corn will require careful management. Implementing carbon dioxide sensing technology could help farmers monitor grain conditions in storage and ensure timely decisions about moving the crop. Additionally, it's critical to pay close attention to moisture levels coming out of the dryer, as some testers may underreport moisture content of freshly dried corn.
Grain Storage and Handling Considerations: With Iowa’s crop production increasing to 3.20 billion bushels in 2024, and current on-hand stock at 0.50 billion bushels, storage capacity will become a significant factor by mid to late October. The state's storage capacity, as estimated by the USDA, stands at 3.57 billion bushels, providing a modest cushion compared to previous years. However, grain management practices will be crucial for optimizing space and ensuring crop quality. Key recommendations include removing center cores from storage bins promptly, recalibrating temperature cables, and avoiding mixing crops from different years in the same bin.
Soybean Outlook: Soybean production in Iowa presents a mixed outlook for 2024. While smaller bean sizes have been noted, the overall yield has been supported by solid subsoil moisture levels, albeit with minimal August rainfall. The average protein content for this year's crop is expected to be around 34%, while oil content should reach 19%. Protein in soybean meal is projected at approximately 47%, and soybean oil output should yield about 11+ pounds per bushel. Dryness in mid to late August almost certainly created smaller bean sizes and reduced yields below what could have happened based on the rest of the growing season.
As with corn, managing soybean moisture will be essential. Harvest moisture levels for soybeans will be highly dependent on weather conditions in the coming weeks. It is likely we will get a period of very dry soybeans until cooler fall weather arrives. A significant drop below 13% moisture content could lead to losses, with a 1% moisture reduction equating to a $0.16 per bushel loss due to water weight. Therefore, aeration strategies will be crucial, particularly in balancing cooling
without over-drying the crop. It’s also worth noting that older moisture meters may underreport moisture levels in crops with mixed maturity, necessitating recalibration or updated equipment.
Economic Impact of Moisture Loss: The economic implications of moisture variability are significant across both corn and soybean crops. For instance, a 1% reduction in moisture below 13% for corn equates to a $6.00 per acre loss at $10.00 per bushel. This figure jumps to $10.70 per acre at $14.00 per bushel. These potential losses, coupled with the challenges of maintaining optimal grain quality, underscore the importance of precise moisture management during harvest and storage. Expect producers to harvest later into night on hotter dry days to prevent as much overdrying as possible. The challenge for grain handlers will be to get freshly harvested soybeans cool as quickly as possible.
Looking Ahead – Industry Trends: Beyond immediate concerns, there are broader industry trends shaping the future of Iowa’s agricultural landscape. Interest in traceability for carbon credits is gaining traction, with early implementation likely at the farm level as producers qualify for subsidies. This evolving interest may add a new, yet unmeasurable, quality factor that impacts future farming practices and regulatory frameworks.
Additionally, the future of U.S. agriculture is increasingly tied to domestic processing, which hinges on the success of government policy. Key areas include corn ethanol production, renewable diesel, and aviation fuels, all of which are expected to play a larger role in supporting Iowa's agricultural economy.
The Take Away: With Iowa’s grain storage nearing capacity and weather conditions set to dictate the final quality of the harvest, grain management strategies will be crucial in maintaining the value and integrity of this year's crop. As farmers navigate the challenges of variable moisture levels, fluctuating market prices, and emerging industry trends, proactive handling and innovative technologies will help ensure a successful 2024 harvest.
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Dr. Charles R. Hurburgh, professor of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, and Professor in Charge, Iowa Grain Quality Initiative at Iowa State University tatry@iastate.edu