China Imports Record Amount of Feed Grains

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service in July reported that China imported a record 37.8 million tons of major feed grains between October 2023 and May 2024. This nearly doubled the volume from the same period the previous year, driven by significant discounts on imported grains, particularly at South China ports.

Corn

Corn imports reached 20.7 million tons from October to May, with 14.8 million tons sourced from Brazil. Brazil’s competitive advantage stems from a bountiful harvest, as well as seasonal timing that makes Brazil corn a highly competitive origin for China buyers. Most of the remaining 5.9 million tons came from the United States and Ukraine. Imports from Ukraine, at 3.2 million tons, were lower than last year due to ongoing disruptions from the war.

The United States exported 2.1 million tons, the lowest volume since 2019-20, despite competitive U.S. prices. China has also purchased corn this year from Burma, Russia, South Africa, and Bulgaria.

Barley

Barley imports soared to 11.7 million tons, surpassing all previous records, while sorghum imports reached 5.2 million tons – the highest for the period since 2015-16. Imports of sorghum and barley are attractive as they are not restricted by a tariff-rate quota. Also, sorghum and barley imports tend to be economical relative to the price of China’s domestic corn, encouraging purchases from private importers.

Prices for both barley and sorghum have declined substantially year to year due to improved global feed grain supplies, improving importer margins and elevating demand.

Sorghum imports were almost exclusively supplied by the United States, totaling 4.1 million tons, thanks to a rebound in U.S. production.

Barley imports, on the other hand, largely came from France, Australia, and Argentina. If realized, China imports of barley in 2023/24 will constitute almost 50% of all global barley imports.

Looking Forward

For 2024-25, China imports of major feed grains are expected to soften from volumes in 2023-24. Smaller crops in the European Union, Canada, and Australia are expected to reduce barley imports, while lower sorghum acreage in the United States is expected temper growth in sorghum. Combined with sufficient corn supplies due to sustained imports and larger domestic production in China, overall feed grain imports are expected to be lower next year.